I read back at copies of a monthly magazine I subscribe to called Investors Chronicle. It was predicting the FT 100 share index going as high as 7000 points by the end of 2008, and rather pointedly suggesting that bank shares, including Northern Rock, were a sound investment both short and long term! Little did they know ...

The first sign of difficulty ahead was the sudden and dramatic rise in the price of crude oil back in March 2008. The effect was startling and we knew that the costs of transportation were about to spiral upwards. Almost daily, the petrol and diesel pumps told a different price. Around about the same time, Northern Rock Bank was suddenly in serious trouble and nationalisation was the only alternative to bankruptcy. Interesting, I was at school with a spotty quiet little boy called Adam Applegarth. He was some year's junior to me but went on to be Chief Executive of Northern Rock!

During the summer and autumn of 2008, we watched almost disbelievingly as the global banking system virtually collapsed, and the Stock Markets hit lows of some years ago. As I write this article, the situation is far from under control and nobody knows the outcome of what happened, or more relevantly the long term consequences. As my brother so aptly put it "we shall have to do without the cream on our cakes for a while!"

The vending industry will survive! In fact some would say it positively thrives in recession? (I think they mean that there is new opportunity when catering takes a hit or two!) We will all have to tighten our belts and ensure that all our costs are under positive control, including those of our key suppliers, whom we will help maintain their profitability providing they share with us the key measurables in adjusting their prices.

And then there is raising the vend price at the consumer end. There is no doubt that the coffee shop experience and the use of paper cups is having a dramatic effect on vend prices and the most important part, margins. The change over from plastic cups and non branded will be fast and furious. In snack, can and bottle vending, there is little doubt we must be bold in the range of products we sell, and the prices we sell them at.

I predict that whilst 2009 will be a tough year for the economy in general, the vending industry will continue to grow and prosper. Machine placements will be difficult and throughputs will fall per machine. However, margins will be maintained and in some cases will rise, providing as I have said, we are bold and realistic in our range selling and pricing.

2009 is a key year for AVEX, the flagship exhibition of the AVA being held in June 2009 at the NEC, Birmingham. We shall be there in force as an industry and I hope it will be well supported for many different reasons.

In 2009, AVS will celebrate 30 years as the leading trading group at the heart of our wonderful industry, and it will have been my great pleasure to have led them for over half that period. We continue to operate as a Buying Group with a range of core and non-core benefits. However, our quarterly members meetings remains the best and most open talking shop in the industry. On 24th September, we shall be hosting the annual AVS Conference in Vilamoura, Algarve, Portugal and we shall be inviting not only our members and suppliers to participate, but also one or two AVS friends from over the years for a rather special event. We shall theme again a Charity, namely the West Midlands based "Acorns Children's Hospice".

May I take the opportunity of wishing you all a healthy and prosperous New Year.

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